The rally in PSBs, analysts feel, was more a knee-jerk reaction to the development, and the actual benefits will start to accrue once the addition takes place in 2024. "The actual benefit for banks from the inclusion in JP Morgan's EM Index will accrue from June 2024 onwards. "Until then, the larger fundamentals of the market will dictate the moves. "Once the initial euphoria subsides, bond markets will look to global cues which may trigger fresh selling," said Siddharth Khemka, head of retail research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
Fundraising via initial public offers (IPOs) dropped 52.2 per cent to $147.2 billion in the first eight months of calendar year 2023 (CY23), suggests a recent report by GlobalData, a London-based analytics and consulting company. At the country level, the report suggests, India topped the charts with 152 transactions worth $3.8 billion during this period, primarily due to a higher number of SME IPOs, followed by the US with 99 deals totaling $16 billion, while China ranked third with 88 transactions worth $32.3 billion. "An analysis of GlobalData's Deals Database reveals that there were 750 IPO listings registered with an aggregate deal value of $147.2 billion in the first eight months of 2023 on the stock exchanges worldwide.
Fiscal pressure for the Indian economy is gradually rising, suggested analysts at Jefferies in a recent note, as oil prices (Brent) - which are close to the $100 a barrel mark - continue to climb ahead of a busy election calendar. They added that the sharp rally in the equity markets during the last few months has made valuations costly. As a result, Jefferies expects the Indian markets to remain choppy in the near term.
Foreign flows into Indian equities are expected to pause in the short to medium term, say analysts. The outlook is influenced by multiple factors, including rising oil prices, actions from global central banks, climbing bond yields, and the dollar index gaining prominence. "Valuations appear rich with the markets at record highs.
'The market should maintain optimism on the back of range-bound oil prices, a robust fiscal balance sheet, a better-than-expected monsoon, and moderating inflation.'
The sharp rally in the midcap stocks has made valuations expensive, and there is room for a correction, wrote Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies in his latest note to investors, GREED & fear. The midcap index, Wood said, now trades at 24.1x 12-month forward earnings compared with 18.7x for the Nifty. Rising crude oil prices, he believes, are another worry for India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its annual crude oil requirement.
'Some risks to this market rally include inflation, erratic weather conditions, rising crude prices, slowing global growth and the resultant impact on domestic exports, escalation in geopolitical tensions.'
India's first-ever listed new-age company, Zomato, has seen a meteoric rise in its stock price in calendar year 2023 (CY23), rising 70.75 per cent during this period as compared to 9.5 per cent rise in the S&P BSE Sensex. From being the second worst hit new-age stock in CY22, crashing 57 per cent on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the stock hit the Rs 100-mark for the first time since January 2022 in late August. The stellar run in the stock - only after PB Fintech and One97 Communications-owned Paytm, analysts say, may be coming to an end, at least for now.
The recent rally in small and midcap (SMID) stocks is not backed by fundamentals and is a case of irrational exuberance, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities said in a recent report. The fundamentals of most of these companies have, in fact, worsened over the last few months, they noted. Yet, some analysts expect the bull run in these stocks to continue amid intermittent corrections.
The outcome of the general elections, the Morgan Stanley note says, has enough firepower to sway the markets on either side.
Public-sector enterprise stocks have seen a good run thus far in 2023-24 (FY24), with the S&P BSE PSU Index surging by over 26 per cent during the period, compared to an 11 per cent increase in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.
'In case the El Nino pattern plays out negatively and/or the political situation becomes messy, we may see markets correcting and waiting for the situation to become clear by early/mid-2024.'
Bond markets, global as well as domestic, are likely headed towards hard times over the next three to six months, as higher vegetable prices, rising fuel costs, and improved wages may keep inflation hot, believe analysts, who expect the yields to hit 7.5 per cent in the near-term from the current 7.234 per cent. In this backdrop, they suggest investors can put in money in funds/instruments with residual maturity of 4 to 6 years, while longer-term investors can allocate cautiously to the longer end in the range beyond 7 years.
The 55 basis point (bps) spike in the US 10-year bond yield, triggered by a combination of FOMC's hawkish commentary and BOJ's relaxation of the yield control curve (YCC) has made analysts cautious on Asian equities and expect them to trade sideways in the short-to-medium term.
Stocks of new-age companies have seen a mixed performance thus far in calendar year 2023 (CY23). While those of One97 Communications (parent company of Paytm), PB Fintech and Zomato have surged up to 63 per cent year-to-date (YTD), FSN e-commerce, the parent company of Nykaa, however, has dropped 14 per cent YTD. By comparison, Nifty50 and Nifty 500 indices have advanced 7 per cent and 8.7 per cent, respectively, during the period, ACE Equity data show.
The "asset-right" strategy, reiterated by ITC chairman Sanjiv Puri during the company's 112th annual general meeting (AGM) on August 11, received a thumbs up from the analysts. They, however, believe that sustained earnings growth and synergies with the demerged hotel's vertical will help the stock break out from the ongoing consolidation. "The stock is expected to consolidate between Rs 420 and Rs 450 in the near future.
The decline of over 5 per cent in PB Fintech's shares (the parent company of PolicyBazaar) in the past two days presents an opportunity for long-term investors to consider buying the stock, suggest analysts. By comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex has remained flat during the same period with a negligible gain of 40 points, or 0.06 per cent. Analysts believe that the recent selling is "overdone", as the company behind the online insurance portal remains committed to achieving profitability, and the potential threat from the government's online insurance portal, Bima Sugam, might be embellished.
Rising crude oil prices, traction in China equities and inflation concerns back home are casting a shadow on the Indian equity markets in the short term, believe analysts at Jefferies. They said this could see the markets remaining range-bound in the near term before the next leg up.
State Bank of India's earnings growth may turn lacklustre in the near-term, warn analysts. This, they said, could be due to margin compression and likely lower fee income over the next one year. "While the cost of deposits is repricing sharply across the system, there will be relatively lower yield expansion going ahead as most of the back-book has been repriced and there is a high competitive pressure on yields.
Despite the best ever quarterly net profit of Rs 3,091 crore during April-June of financial year 2023-24 (Q1FY24), challenges are mounting for InterGlobe Aviation-run IndiGo in the near term, said analysts. Given this, most brokerages have retained their ratings from 'buy to underperform', as well as their target price for the stock. For instance, Motilal Oswal Financial Services has retained its 'neutral' rating on the scrip as it believes the low-cost airline is facing teething issues at present.
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